Tuesday, January 16, 2018

'WNY Creek' Overflows its Banks because of a Huge Ice Jam

While the ABC anchors identified this overflowed creek as a "Western New York Creek," they did not identify it by name. My first guess is the Tonawanda Creek and my second guess is the Cazenovia Creek. The landscape looks similar to one or both of these areas which have regularly been known to overflow and experience ice jams.


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Count-Down Updated: 5 Days to the Mid-Winter Survivors' Party at Koinonia, Jan. 20, 4 pm

YOUR YEAR-ROUND RESIDENT 
PERSONAL INVITATION 
AS AN SLI WINTER SURVIVOR


EMAIL OR PHONE RSVPs TO:
greg@SLI.website or 843-8603 
NLT this Thursday


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Monday, January 15, 2018

Although the Low Tonight should hold Right around 20⁰, it will Feel more
Like 9⁰ with 1-3 inches Overnight

8 pm Radar

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The Flu is now officially
An Epidemic in the US

A severe influenza outbreak has spread to all the US states except Hawaii (and the District of Columbia), according to a report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Experts say that this year's flu season started much earlier than expected.


In the 13 years of the CDC’s current flu-tracking system, “This is the first year we’ve had the entire continental US be the same color on the [map],” said Dan Jernigan, head of the CDC’s flu division, in a press briefing.
The season started early, and while we could be at peak flu right now, public health officials anticipate flu viruses will circulate for a few more months — bringing a lot of illness, hospitalizations, and even death.
Around the country, there are already reports of doctors’ offices bursting at the seamswith flu patients, and Alabama has declared a public health emergency over the fluSo why is this year’s flu season so wretched? And what can you do about it? Here’s what you need to know.

Why this flu season is so bad

Flu is a viral respiratory disease, and it leads to nasty fevers, headaches, coughs, muscle pains, and runny noses that make many people miserable in the fall and winter.
There are four species of influenza — A, B, C, and D — and seasonal flu is caused by influenza A and B viruses. Every year, different strains of these viruses circulate. The reason this year’s flu season is more severe than usual is because it involves the dreaded H3N2, a strain of the influenza A virus that causes more health complications and is more difficult to prevent.
H3N2 hits people harder than other seasonal flu strains and can be especially deadly among vulnerable groups like the elderly and children. Researchers still aren’t sure why, but they’ve found that a flu season involving the H3 virus is generally nastier — with more hospitalizations and flu-related deaths — than seasons involving mostly H1N1 or influenza B viruses.
This year, more than 80 percent of flu cases involve H3N2 strain. And the CDC’s Jernigan reported that there were 22.7 hospitalizations related to flu per 100,000 population during the week of December 31, 2017, to January 6, 2018. That’s a doubling from 13.7 the week before. “We’re seeing a rapid rise in the number of people being hospitalized,” Jernigan said.
The highest rates of hospitalizations are occurring among those over age 65, but adults aged 50 to 64 are also being hospitalized in higher-than-usual numbers, as are children younger than 5 years old, Jernigan said.
It’s not yet clear what the final toll of this year’s flu season will look like, since it’s expected to continue for a few more months. But for context, in recent years, mild flu seasons tend to kill about 12,000 Americans, and severe flu seasons kill about 56,000.
What happened in Australia, where the flu season peaks in August, might be a hint of what we’re in for here. H3N2 struck there as well — and contributed to more than two-and-a-half times the number of flu cases compared to the previous year. There were also 745 deaths, compared to the five-year average of 176 deaths, according to the Sydney Morning Herald.

H3N2 is especially difficult to prevent with the flu shot

Another reason having the H3N2 strain in circulation is so nasty is because it’s hard to prevent with the flu vaccineTo understand why, you need to understand how the flu vaccine works — and why it is by no means perfect.
The vaccine is designed to protect people against three or four strains of the A and B viruses that researchers believe will be most common in a given year. So every year, public health agencies essentially make educated guesses on what strains and mutations will make the rounds. As you can imagine, this is no easy task — and in reviews of the research on flu vaccine effectiveness, researchers have found that years when H3N2 is circulating tend to be years when the vaccine is less effective.
Edward Belongia, a senior epidemiologist at the Marshfield Clinic Research Institute in Wisconsin who has studied flu vaccine effectiveness, found that the combined vaccine effectiveness during H3N2 seasons was 33 percent, meaning getting vaccinated reduced a person’s risk of having to go to the doctor by about a third. The flu shot’s effectiveness rose to 54 percent during influenza type B seasons, and 67 percent during H1N1 seasons.
There are a couple of reasons why H3N2 seems to be particularly resistant to the flu shot. H3N2 mutates as it moves through the population at a faster rate than other flu viruses — making it even harder to design a vaccine that can fend off the circulating virus. It’s also more difficult to grow H3N2 in eggs, where viruses for flu vaccines are produced. “In the process of adapting virus to grow in eggs, that seems to introduce further changes to the virus, which may impair the effectiveness of the vaccine, Belongia explained.

It’s not too late to get a flu shot

Still, if you haven’t done it yet, it’s a good idea to get the flu shot anyway. Flu season will last several more months, sometimes even stretching into May.
“Flu season is peaking now — but we know from past experience it’ll take many more weeks to slow down,” said CDC Director Brenda Fitzgerald. She also noted that other types of flu virus — like H1N1 or influenza B, which are more easily prevented with the vaccine — are on the rise now. Getting vaccinated now can reduce your risk of these other infections even if it won’t necessarily prevent H3N2.
Belongia noted that even 33 percent protection against H3N2 is better than no protection. “That still prevents a lot of hospitalizations and deaths,” he said. As I’ve reported before, flu vaccines also carry little risk — and the potential benefit of avoiding serious illness. So it’s not a bad idea to get immunized.
In the meantime, there are other, even simpler, things you can do to mitigate your risk of getting the flu and, if you do get sick, spreading the virus to others. They include good old-fashioned hand-washing, covering your mouth when you cough, and staying home if you’re sick.
RED = Widespread

The Count-Down Update: 6 Days to the First Mid-Winter Survivors' Party;
RSVPs Needed NLT Thursday

THIS SATURDAY, JAN. 20, AT 4 PM AT ASBURY'S KOINONIA INN
RSVPs and Choices are due NLT this Thursday.
Email greg@sli.website or 483-8603.


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Sunday, January 14, 2018

The Count-Down Begins: 7 Days to the First Mid-Winter Survivors' Party;
RSVPs Needed NLT Thursday

Koinonia Inn is situated at the Lake end of the Asbury Camp & Retreat Center's Main Parking Lot; and is between the parking lot and Lakeside Avenue. We will be in the Main Dining Room which is most easily accessible from the parking lot. The main car entrance is diagonally opposite Perry Avenue at Chapman Avenue.


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Saturday, January 13, 2018

Survivors' Party will have Gluten-Free as an RSVP Choice; Include other Topping Choices when RSVPing

The Mid-Winter Survivors' Party Planning Committee will be doing its best to accommodate the flavor pallets of each survivor-guest. In order to more readily and accurately accommodate you, please plan to give your choices at the time of your RSVP. We are looking to get an accurate count for those in need of gluten-free crust so they can fully participate and enjoy. All pizzas will have sauce, cheese and pepperoni on them unless you specify otherwise. 

In asking for other choices, such as mushroom, pepper, onion, anchovy, meat-lovers, etc., please indicate whether you are making one or more choices. Example: mushroom and onion, or mushroom (as a first choice) or onion (as a second choice). Excitement is building and we look forward to getting together!


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One Week from Today -- Mid-Winter Survivors' Party for SLI Year-Round Residents Jan. 20 4pm, Koinonia

Koinonia Inn is situated at the Lake end of the Asbury Camp & Retreat Center's Main Parking Lot; and is between the parking lot and Lakeside Avenue. We will be in the Main Dining Room which is most easily accessible from the parking lot. The main car entrance is diagonally opposite Perry Avenue at Chapman Avenue.


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Wind Chill Advisory Goes in Effect at
7 pm Saturday, Ends 10 am Sunday

  • Wind Chill Advisory

    Wind Chill Advisory in effect from 7:00 PM EST until Sunday, 10:00 AM EST. Source: U.S. National Weather Service
WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 
7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. Expect wind chills of around 15 below zero at times.

* WHERE...Wyoming, Cattaraugus, and Allegany counties.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The cold wind chills will cause frostbite in as little as 30 minutes to exposed skin.

* PRECAUTIONARY / PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
This is a potentially dangerous situation to be outdoors. If you must be outside, be sure to cover all exposed skin. Frostbite can occur in 30 minutes or less with apparent temperatures of 15 below zero or colder. &&

January Thaw Ended Friday with
8-10 inches of New Snow Overnight

A rainy couple of days provided for a more rapid January melt clearing out most of the snow except for the largest of plowed up snow piles. Silver Lake seems to have been sparred the forecast freezing rain since at one point we were receiving the last of the rain while the first of the snow flakes were arriving. Temperatures dipped into the low teens. The 1:54 pm Saturday temperature for the entire Lake shore is 10 degrees F.

Updated: 1:54 pm



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Friday, January 12, 2018

Weather Summary at 8:30 pm;
2+ Inches of Snow by Midnight




     

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Weekend Wind, Snow, Ice

 River Flood Warning
Weather Updated: Jan 12 10:43AM
Issued by the National Weather Service
For Wyoming County, New York

RIVER FLOOD WARNING FROM 1PM EST FRI UNTIL 7:32AM EST SAT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A * FLOOD WARNING FOR THE GENESEE RIVER AT PORTAGEVILLE * UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. * AT 11 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.1 FEET AND RISING. * FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET. * MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. * FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND CREST NEAR 20.9 FEET THIS EVENING. * IMPACT...AT 19.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE, RIVER BEGINS TO OVERFLOW INTO AGRICULTURAL LANDS FROM BELFAST TO LETCHWORTH. LITTLE DAMAGE. &&


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Severe Weather Alerts - Silver Lake, NY

  • Winter Storm Warning

    Winter Storm Warning in effect until Saturday, 4:00 PM EST. Source: U.S. National Weather Service
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY...




* WHAT... Rain changing to freezing rain and sleet through this evening, then heavy snow expected tonight through Saturday. Travel will be very difficult to impossible, with very slippery travel conditions for the evening commute today as water quickly freezes on untreated surfaces. Total snow accumulations of 9 to 17 inches and ice accumulations of up to two tenths of an inch are expected.

* WHERE... Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Genesee, Wyoming, Livingston, and Ontario counties.

* WHEN... From 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EST Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS... The rain and freezing rain at the onset of the event, followed by heavy snowfall, will create extra slippery travel conditions. Be prepared for a widespread, heavy and wet snowfall that will create difficult travel conditions across the region. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph will cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Widespread accumulating snow and ice will create dangerous travel conditions. &&


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Storm with Ice Moves East
For Later this Evening

Click HERE for full ABC weekend storm report.

January Thaw Continues Today

The sun looked to be beginning to cut through the clouds, but it didn't last long. Earlier fogginess was only moisture on all of my north and south windows. The story on fog is hereby retracted.


Look at the interesting way the sun is eliminating the moisture (fog) at the south end of the Lake . . .
Bottom Photo Courtesy of the Silver Lake Marine
Top Photo Courtesy of the Silver Lake Institute



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Thursday, January 11, 2018

Last Patient from Sutherland Springs
Texas Church Shootings Goes Home


RYLAND WARD, 6, shot 5 times at the age of 5, leaves the hospital in a big, shiny red Fire Truck, and is welcomed by the whole community who is now, along with his father, his whole family.

Just last week, Ryland celebrated his 6th birthday. He is expected to be released from University Hospital Wednesday afternoon. Ryland was shot five times in the nation's worst church massacre. A big red fire truck just like Ryland wants picked him up and escorted him back home. The driver of that truck was the firefighter who rescued Ryland that tragic day. He was also to be greeted by other first responders and the community.
***



VIDEO: Firefighters escort 6-year-old Sutherland Springs church shooting surivor Ryland Ward home. (One HUGE project for one special little boy!) Observe the detail--police, fire, hospital personnel, news helicopter, etc.--that went into this project!

***
Members of the community lined the streets on the way to Sutherland Springs to cheer on Ryland as he made his big return home.

Comments to the Blog

  • Thank You for taking the time to post this important information. It is appreciated.
  • I enjoyed looking at the photos posted today. Bert Shields (actually Burton) was my great grandfather. He died long before I was born; My grandmother-Carrie Shields Day - spent most of her summers at the lake.

    Her brother-Burton Jr & his wife Lillie owned the Lakeview cottage now owned by the Turners.. My mother spent most summers there with her 2 cousins, Vivian & Marion. Burton Jr also died before I was born, but Lille lived until I was a teenager, and often visited my parents original cottage above Epworth Hall. My grandmother often took me for walks around the institute, and pointed out her parents home. I believe it is now Bill Gleasons. My memory is somewhat hazy but it seems like she told me they had moved the house across the street from where it was when she was growing up. I know that Burt was despised in the institute and referred to as the gestapo. On a sad note, Lillie's daughter Vivian died in her early 50's, followed by Lillie a few months later, and 3 months after that by her younger daughter Marion. All died of cancer. They no doubt would have survived in today's world.
  • Lisa SchiskeDecember 7, 2017 at 9:37 PM> Wow!!! Jack.....Thank you soooo much for sharing your history of Silver Lake Institute with all of us!!!!
  • Dianne, Just ran across this. So sorry to hear about Alan. God bless you and your family in this difficult time. You are in our prayers. Nick and Elizabeth Woods
  • God Bless you Greg....I truly believe your love for the Silver Lake Institute is shining brightly. Things might not always go as planned but please know that I, Lisa, know that they are coming from your heart. Namaste my friend...



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Weather Conditions in Good Shape
Through late Tomorrow Afternoon

Melting took place all day today greatly reducing snow levels and even snow piles. Roadways, though damp, were clear of snow and ice. This may continue into tomorrow if the temperatures remain above freezing as they have been for at least the last 24 hours.



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Mailed Announcements Were
Placed in the U.S. Mail Today

YEAR-ROUND RESIDENTS' MID-WINTER SURVIVORS' PARTY JAN. 20, 4 PM
RSVP count (as of 2 pm Thursday, Jan. 11th) stands at 8
(3 couples, 2 singles); RSVP greg@sli.website or 483-8603



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Warmest Day, Thursday, in Progress; Friday-Saturday is Another Story

Winter Storm Watch Goes into Effect Tomorrow 
Afternoon; Areal Flooding Watch Remains in Effect; Cloudy Today, 52, Occasional Bouts of Filtered Sun

Thursday's forecast and temperatures belies what lays ahead for the upcoming days and weeks. We are not strangers to snow and bitter cold this season, but most people are speaking of being somewhat weary of winter already. Yet, unlike other years, we are not alone, many other areas of the country have suffered their own cold temperatures, snow, and ice in areas rarely affected to the extent that they have been this season.

In addition to the winter conditions of wind, snow, ice, and  bitter cold, we are reminded of another type of tragedy taking place in California, as "biblical proportion rains" fell upon the Thomas fire area in Santa Barbara which no longer has active vegetation to absorb the hard falling rains. This causing violent mudslides which drove boulders through homes and into cars followed by several feet of mud destroying what was left of the homes and cars, some of which were found to be hanging from trees.

People were being carried downstream by the power of the water and mud with some not surviving the violence. There are still missing persons believed to have been buried in the depths of the mud. The texture of this mud mixed with ash is much like mixed concrete. Rescuers are up against a time deadline since the mud will be drying out quickly making further rescues impossible, or at least a great deal more difficult.

Temperatures at Silver Lake continued to rise overnight on their trek to the high of the day which has been forecast as reaching 52 degrees.



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Wednesday, January 10, 2018

Winter Storm Watch Friday-Saturday; Areal Flood Watch Continues
thru Saturday Afternoon

Severe Weather Alerts - Silver Lake, NY

  • Winter Storm Watch

    Winter Storm Watch in effect from Friday, 4:00 PM EST until Saturday, 4:00 PM EST. Source: U.S. National Weather Service
WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THRU SATURDAY AFTERNOON

* WHAT... Heavy snow and mixed precipitation possible. Travel will be very difficult. Totals: snow accumulations of 8 to 14 inches and ice accum-ulations of a tenth of an inch are possible.

* WHERE... Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, Genesee, Wyoming, Livingston, Ontario, Chautauqua, and Southern Erie counties.

* WHEN... From Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS... Significant reductions in visibility are possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS..
Begin needed preparations at home or with your vehicle. Travel may become difficult, so plan accordingly. &&
  • Areal Flood Watch Continues

    Areal Flood Watch in effect from Thursday, 10:00 AM EST until Saturday, 4:00 AM EST. Source: U.S. National Weather Service
    FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON


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Keeping Disabled People from Their Full Potential is a Social Justice Issue





Attorney General Jefferson Sessions gave people with disabilities something worse than a lump of coal for Christmas—he rescinded 10 documents offering guidance on disability rights. One, from 2016, protected people with disabilities from exploitation on the job and ensured that they had the chance to move into integrated job settings if able to do so. There’s real money in taking away these rights, David Perry reports at Pacific Standard:
Segregated workshops are legally allowed to pay disabled workers pennies per hour. They are incredibly lucrative, and often their owners use their wealth to buy political access. But in 2015, a class action suit in Oregon (Lane v. Brown) and a consent decree in Rhode Island resulted in the new DOJ guidelines: Basically, everyone deserves an opportunity to work in integrated settings. That's only possible if education systems, workplaces, and housing providers play by the same sets of rules governing the public and private mechanisms of disability rights work together.
So repealing the guideline makes it more likely that the wealthy owners of segregated workshops can continue to profit from the labor of underpaid disabled workers, blocking them from moving toward integrated work.